Back to search

Impacts of COVID-19 on global poverty, food security and diets: Insights from global model scenario analysis

Agricultural Economics Laborde, D., Martin, W., Vos, R. 2021-4-08
Article on the impact of COVID-19 on poverty, food insecurity, and diets, accounting for the complex links between the crisis and the incomes and living costs of vulnerable households. Key elements are impacts on labor supply, effects of social distancing, shifts in demand from services involving close contact, increases in the cost of logistics in food and other supply chains, and reductions in savings and investment. These are examined using IFPRI's global general equilibrium model linked to epidemiological and household models. The simulations suggest that the global recession caused by COVID-19 will be much deeper than that of the 2008–2009 financial crisis. The increases in poverty are concentrated in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa with impacts harder in urban areas than in rural. The COVID-19-related lockdown measures explain most of the fall in output, whereas declines in savings soften the adverse impacts on food consumption.
View source
  • COVID-19 Pandemic
  • Economic
  • Food Insecurity
  • Nutrition
  • Restricted Mobility
  • Africa
  • Asia
  • South Asia
  • Sub-Saharan Africa
  • Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs)
  • Country-level population(s)
  • Research
  • Article
  • Journal article

Highlighted Sources

Asia and the Pacific regional overview of food security and nutrition 2022: Urban food systems and nutrition – Launch recording, Key messages & Full report

  • Policy
  • Research
  • Article
  • Press release
  • Report
  • Video
  • COVID-19 Pandemic
  • Economic
  • Food Insecurity
  • Health
  • Nutrition
  • Ukraine War
  • Women and/or Girls
2023-01-24
Press release on the launch and key messages of the fifth annual Asia-Pacific regional SOFI report. The report’s highlights capture the challenges and system-level determinants of unhealthy diets in urban areas, both regarding undernutrition and overweight. It presents, among others, data on food security and affordability and the state of progress on achieving the global nutrition targets. The findings profile various urban environments, interventions, experiences, and opportunities to innovate at multiple levels to transform urban areas into sustainable cities. A link to the report's virtual launch event is available including the recording, key messages, and full report. View Source

Impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on diets, nutrition services & nutrition practices in UNICEF’s Eastern and Southern Africa Region (ESAR): Evidence from remote surveys

  • Research
  • Report
  • COVID-19 Pandemic
  • Economic
  • Food Insecurity
  • Health
  • Nutrition
  • Women and/or Girls
2023-01-01
Report on the impact of the COVID pandemic on diets, services, and practices in the Eastern and Southern Africa region. The report presents findings from remote surveys in six ESAR countries with data on breastfeeding, diet diversity, food consumption and insecurity, drivers of dietary changes, and disruptions to nutrition services. The survey provides important learning for the future use of remote methods for collecting nutrition data. Technical brief, pull report, and six country briefs are available. View Source

Economic shocks predict increases in child wasting prevalence

  • Research
  • Article
  • Journal article
  • COVID-19 Pandemic
  • Economic
  • Food Insecurity
  • Health
  • Nutrition
  • Other Crises
  • Social Support and Protection
2022-04-20
Article on the impact of severe negative economic shock on child acute malnutrition (wasting), a major risk factor for under-5 mortality. In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) macroeconomic volatility is common, and severe negative economic shocks can substantially increase poverty and food insecurity. Less well understood are the implications of these contractions for child wasting. This study explores the nutritional impacts of economic growth shocks over 1990–2018 by linking wasting outcomes collected for 1.256 million children from 52 countries to lagged annual changes in economic growth. Estimates suggest that a 10% annual decline in national income increases moderate/severe wasting prevalence by 14.4–17.8%. An exploration of possible mechanisms suggests negative economic shocks may increase risks of inadequate dietary diversity among children. Applying these results to the latest economic growth estimates for 2020 suggests that COVID-19 could put an additional 9.4 million preschoolers at risk of wasting, net of the effects of preventative policy actions. View Source