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World economic outlook update: Rising caseloads, a disrupted recovery, and higher inflation

IMF IMF 2022-1-1
Report on the global economy in 2022. As the new Omicron COVID-19 variant spreads, countries have reimposed mobility restrictions. Rising energy prices and supply disruptions have resulted in higher and more broad-based inflation than anticipated, notably in the United States and many emerging market and developing economies. The ongoing retrenchment of China’s real estate sector and slower-than-expected recovery of private consumption also have limited growth prospects. Global growth is expected to moderate from 5.9 in 2021 to 4.4% in 2022—half a percentage point lower for 2022 than in the October World Economic Outlook (WEO), largely reflecting forecast markdowns in the two largest economies. A revised assumption removing the Build Back Better fiscal policy package from the baseline, earlier withdrawal of monetary accommodation, and continued supply shortages produced a downward 1.2 percentage-points revision for the United States. In China, pandemic-induced disruptions related to the zero-tolerance COVID-19 policy and protracted financial stress among property developers have induced a 0.8 percentage-point downgrade. Global growth is expected to slow to 3.8% in 2023. Although this is 0.2 percentage point higher than in the previous forecast, the upgrade largely reflects a mechanical pickup after current drags on growth dissipate in the second half of 2022. The forecast is conditional on adverse health outcomes declining to low levels in most countries by end-2022, assuming vaccination rates improve worldwide and therapies become more effective. The full report is available
  • COVID-19 Pandemic
  • Economic
  • Health
  • Restricted Mobility
  • Africa
  • Asia
  • Brazil
  • Canada
  • Caribbean
  • China
  • East Asia
  • Europe
  • France
  • Germany
  • Global
  • India
  • Italy
  • Japan
  • Latin America
  • Mexico
  • Middle East
  • Nigeria
  • North America
  • Russia (Russian Federation)
  • Saudi Arabia
  • Southern Africa
  • Spain
  • Sub-Saharan Africa
  • United Kingdom
  • United States of America
  • West Africa
  • High-Income Countries (HICs)
  • Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs)
  • Country-level population(s)
  • Research
  • Report

Highlighted Sources

Child food poverty: A nutrition crisis in early childhood

  • Research
  • Journal article
  • Report
  • Economic
  • Health
  • Nutrition
  • Other Crises
  • Ukraine War
2022-10-01
Report on the crisis of child food poverty – a state where young children are not fed the bare minimum number of food groups they need in early childhood. It presents data to illustrate how many children are experiencing food poverty, how many children are living in severe food poverty, what their diets look like, where they live – including in which households, communities and countries – and how these metrics have changed over time. The full report is available View Source

Micronutrient deficiencies among preschool-aged children and women of reproductive age worldwide: A pooled analysis of individual-level data from population-representatives

  • Research
  • Article
  • Journal article
  • Health
  • Nutrition
  • Other Crises
  • Women and/or Girls
2022-11-1
Article on the global and regional prevalence of deficiency in at least one of three micronutrients among preschool-aged children (aged 6-59 months) and non-pregnant women of reproductive age (aged 15-49 years). In this pooled analysis individual-level biomarker data for micronutrient status from nationally representative, population-based surveys was analyzed. Bayesian hierarchical logistic regression was used to estimate the prevalence of deficiency in at least one of three micronutrients for preschool-aged children (iron, zinc, and vitamin A) and for non-pregnant women of reproductive age (iron, zinc, and folate), globally and in seven regions using 24 nationally representative surveys done between 2003 and 2019. View Source

Assessing and mitigating the impact of shocks on food security and nutrition in the Asia Pacific region: Lessons from the COVID-19 response for informing the Global Food Crisis response

  • Policy
  • Research
  • Brief
  • Policy Guidance Document
  • Report
  • COVID-19 Pandemic
  • Economic
  • Food Insecurity
  • Health
  • Nutrition
  • Other Crises
  • Social Support and Protection
  • Ukraine War
  • Women and/or Girls
2022-7
Report on assessing and mitigating the impact of shocks on food security and nutrition in the Asia Pacific region to obtain lessons from the COVID-19 response for informing the Global Food Crises response. It lays out a series of studies undertaken by WFP and partners to better understand the realities of the food security and nutrition landscape since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in the region. These are based on experiences throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, where WFP has continually assessed household vulnerability to food and nutrition insecurity through monitoring surveys, while simultaneously providing technical assistance and operations support for programs in response to the pandemic in the Asia Pacific region. In addition to WFP’s food security monitoring reports and data made available from WFP’s Fill the Nutrient Gap analyses, this brief utilizes secondary data relevant to the crisis, as well as four documents recently published by WFP and its partners. While the focus of this brief is on the COVID-19 crisis, its lessons can be applied now and into the future. Other types of covariate shocks will create compounding problems for countries. View Source